Acta Politica Polonica
Vorher: Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego. Acta Politica
Implications of population growth on unemployment in Nigeria: Testing the Malthusian and Keynesian Theories
DOI: 10.18276/ap.2024.57-06
Zitieren
Der Volltext ist verfügbar
| ISSN: | 2451-0432 |
| eISSN: | 2719-4388 |
| Autoren: |
Kehinde Ajike
Olabiyi
Department of Economics, Osun State University, Osogbo, Nigeria Lawrence Olusegun Fagbolae Department of Economics, Osun State University, Osogbo, Nigeria Olufunmilayo O. Banjo Department of Demography & Social Stat., Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile Ife, Osun State, Nigeria |
| Schlüsselbegriffe: | population unemployment Malthusian Keynesian ARDL Nigeria |
| Seitenanzahl: | 14 (85-98) |
| OAI-PMH: | Metadaten |
 
 
| |
Abstract
This study was conducted to determine if it is Malthusian theory that viewed population growth as depressing employment opportunity, or Keynesian theory that supports the view of population growth enhancing employment opportunities that holds in the population and unemployment relationship in Nigeria within the period of 1981 to 2019. Data on age dependency and working–age population ratio were used to measure population growth, with unemployment rate as the explained variable. The datasets were sourced from the World Development Indicator database. The study employed the ARDL approach to cointegration to determine the long-run relationship of the variables. The results of the analysis show a long-run relationship between population and unemployment growth rate in Nigeria. Population growth was shown to be capable of significantly reducing unemployment in the long run thereby upholding the proposition of Keynesian theory of unemployment. However, the effect was shown to be the other way in the short run, thereby supporting the proposition of the Malthusian theory of population. The study therefore posits that the effect of population on unemployment is time variant. It is therefore recommended that the government of Nigeria should improve the quality of her population through education and health in order to be able to reap the gain in the future as population grows. Also, the potentialities in the growing population could be harnessed through increased aggregate demand when the government of Nigeria uses his fiscal stance to enhance the people’s income.
PDF-Vorschau
Bibliographie (21)
- dekola, P.O., Allen, A.A., Olawole, I.A., Akanbi, M.A. & Adewumu, O. (2016). Unemployment in Nigeria: A challenge of demographic change. International Journal of Scientific Research in Multidisciplinary Studies, 2 (5), 1–9. Retrieved from: www.isroset.org (3.04.2023).
- Ajie, O. & Akpansung, F. (2018). Impact of price instability on unemployment and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An empirical analysis International. Journal Of Developing and Emerging Economies, 6 (1), 29–90.
- Alimi, O.Y., Fagbohun, A.C., & Mohammed, A. (2021). Is population an asset or a liability to Nigeria’s economic growth? Evidence from FM-OLS and ARDL approach to cointegration.
- Babatunde, A., & Awopetu, O.B. (2020). Population growth and unemployment in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and sustainable development, 11 (2), 98–109.
- Bakare, A.S. (2011). The determinants of urban unemployment crisis in Nigeria: An econometric analysis. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences (JETEMS), 2 (3), 184–192.
- Bloom, D.E., Canning, D. & Sevilla, J. (2001). Economic growth and the demographic Transition. NBER Working Paper, No. 8685, pp. 2–48.
- Coale, A.C. & Hoover, E.M. (1958). Population growth and economic development in low income countries: A case study of India. Princeton University Press.
- Dullah, M., Rozilee, A., Mori, K. & Jaratin, L. (2011). Economic growth and population growth: Empirical testing using Malaysian data. Interdisciplinary Journal of Research in Business, 1 (5), 17–24.
- Keynes, J.M. (1936). The general theory of employment: Interest and money. Macmillan. Kremer, M. (1990). Population growth and technological change: One Million B.C. to 1990. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 681–716.
- Kuznets, S., Quandt, R. & Friedman, M. (1960). Population change and aggregate output. In: Universities-National Bureau, Demographic and economic change in developed countries (pp. 340–367).
- UMI. Malthus, T.R. (1798). An essay on the principle of population: Chapter V. In Oxford World’s Methods. Econometrica, 37 (3), 424–438.
- Maku, O.E. & Alimi, O.Y. (2018). Fiscal policy tools, employment generation and sustainable development in Nigeria. Acta Univesitatis Danubius Economica, 14 (3), 186–199.
- Mankiw, N.G. (2010). Macroeconomics (7th ed.). Worth Publishers. Narayan, P. & Smyth, R. (2005). Trade liberalization and economic growth in Fiji: an empirical assessment using the ARDL approach. Journal of Asia Pacific Economy, 10 (1), 96–115.
- National Bureau for Statistics (2018). Nigeria economic statistics for 2018. Abuja: Federal Government Press.
- Ogujiuba, K., Ogujiuba, C. & Appunni, S.S. (2014). Consumption and population dynamics in Nigeria: Analysis and micro simulations using fertility rate variants. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 17, 1–18.
- Ominyi, S.O., Ojiya, E.A. & Tersugh, A. (2019). Population growth and unemployment rate in Nigeria: a causality analysis. International Journal of Scientific Research in Social Sciences and Management Studies, 4 (2), 39–54.
- O’Nwachukwu, C.I. (2017). Determinants of the rate of unemployment in Nigeria. International Journal of Information Research and Review, 4 (1), 3593–359. Retrieved from: http://www.ijirr.com (3.04.2023).
- Trading Economics (2014). Trading Economics website. https://tradingeconomics.com/ (3.04.2023).
- World Bank (2017). World bank development indicator. Washington DC, USA: World Bank.
- World Bank (2018). World bank development indicator. Washington DC, USA: World Bank.
- Worldometer (n.d.). Elaboration of data by United Nations. Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Population Division. Retrieved from: www.worldometers.info (3.04.2023).