Przeszłość Demograficzna Polski

Poland's Demographic Past

ISSN: 0079-7189    OAI    DOI: 10.18276/pdp.2015.2.37-08
CC BY-SA   Open Access   DOAJ  CEEOL  ERIH PLUS  DOAJ

Lista wydań / 37, 2015, nr 2
Wpływ I wojny światowej na stan i strukturę ludności miasta Krakowa. Badanie przy użyciu wariantowych projekcji demograficznych

Autorzy: Bartosz Ogórek
Uniwersytet Pedagogiczny im. Komisji Edukacji Narodowej w Krakowie, Wydział Humanistyczny
Słowa kluczowe: Cracow the First World War population losses demographic projections
Data publikacji całości:2015
Liczba stron:20 (159-178)
Cited-by (Crossref) ?:

Abstrakt

The article assesses the effects of the First World War on the population of Cracow, visible in the state and structure of the town’s population. The collected statistical materials (mainly the publications of the City’s Statistical Office) have been used to carry out an annual projection of the size and structure of the city’s population, separately for each sex for the years 1890–1921. The procedure, sometimes called cohort-component method population projection, is based on sectional (periodical) tables of mortality. In that way four projections have been constructed, which allows to separately assess the impact of the war mortality and reproduction on the state and structure of the population and to visualise a hypothetical growth of the city’s population, which would have taken place if the war had not broken out. Thanks to that it is possible to state that the potential population losses of Cracow in 1921 amounted to 8.45% of the 1910 population. Within those losses 7% were civil losses, and only 1.45% were the killed and the missing. The impact of the war on the population was much stronger through intensified mortality, and not through limited reproduction. The ratio between losses caused by changes in mortality and reproduction for the population of Cracow was 70:30. The use of demographic projections has also allowed to identify populational groups especially prone to the increased war mortality. Both in women and in men the biggest part of civil victims of the war were children and youngsters aged 3 to 19 years old and people over 50 years old. The war situation influenced also the values of the synthetic demographic indicators. The life expectancy for women decreased by 25% in 1918 (the record year), and the overall reproduction rate by 47%. In addition to strictly research conclusions, the article has a methodological value, as it shows how the use of demographic projections allows to present the effects of war in the sphere of the population.
Pobierz plik

Plik artykułu

Bibliografia

1.Alberto Palloni, Les mortalites de crise: leur estimation, leur consequences, [w:] Mesure et analyse de la mortalité: nouvelles approches: actes d’un séminaire international tenu a Sienne du 7 au 12 juillet 1987, a l’initiative de la Commission de l’UIESP sur les changements comparés de la mortalité, avec le concours de l’Istituto di statistica de l’Université de Sienne, red. Jacques Vallin, Stan D'Souza, Alberto Palloni, Paryż 1988.
2.Bartosz Ogórek, Populacja Krakowa w kontekście długofalowych procesów demograficznych na przełomie XIX i XX wieku, „Przeszłość Demograficzna Polski” 32, 2013.
3.Dariusz Szudra, Wpływ I wojny światowej na procesy demograficzne w pruskiej prowincji Pomorze do 1925 r. cz. 1, „Zapiski Historyczne”, 67 2002, z. 2.
4.Dariusz Szudra, Wpływ I wojny światowej na procesy demograficzne w pruskiej prowincji Pomorze do 1925 r. cz. 2, „Zapiski Historyczne”, 67 2002, z. 3–4.
5.Edward Rosset, Prawa demograficzne wojny. Odbitka z Dziennika Zarządu miasta Łodzi, Łódź 1933.
6.Fritz Redlich, New and Traditional Approaches to Economic History and Their Interdependence, „The Journal of Economic History” 25, 1965, no. 4.
7.Jacques Vallin, „France Meslé, Serguei Adamets, Serhii Pyrozhkov. A New Estimate of Ukrainian Population Losses During the Crises of the 1930s and 1940s, „Population Studies” 56, 2004, issue 3.
8.James H. Mielke, Kari Pitkänen,War Demography: The Impact of the 1808–09 War on the Civilian Population of Aland, Finland, „European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie” 5, 1989, no. 4.
9.Jan Tambor, Trwanie życia ludzkiego w Krakowie w okresie od r. 1881–1925. Kraków 1930.
10.Jerzy Holzer, Demografia, Warszawa 2003.
11.K. Andreev, D. Jdanov, D. A. Glei, C. Boe, M. Bubenheim, D. Philipov, D. Shkolnikov, P. Vachon, Methods Protocol for the Human Mortality Database, version 5, http://www.mortality.org/Public/Docs/MethodsProtocol.pdf, dostęp: 17.12.2014 r.
12.Lance Davis, The New Economic History. II. Professor Fogel and the New Economic History, „Economic History Review” 19, 1966, issue 3.
13.Magdalena Górecka, Nieodparta pokusa spekulacji, czyli o fenomenie historiografii kontrfaktycznej, „Kultura i Historia” 25, 2014, http://www.kulturaihistoria.umcs.lublin.pl/archives/5245, dostęp: 15.12.2014 r.
14.Manswet Ciemieniewski, Wpływ wypadków wojennych na zjawiska ludnościowe w Warszawie. Odbitka z Pamiętnika II Zjazdu Hygienistów Polskich, 1918.
15.Marceli Handelsman, La Pologne sa vie economique et sociale pendant la guerre, t. 1: Histoire economique et sociale de la guerre mondiale, Les presses universitaires de France, Paris–New Haven 1933.
16.Matthew S. Miller, Stacey A. Hallman, Bourbeau Robert, Herring D. Ann, Earn David J. D., Joaquín Madrenas, Age-Specific Mortality During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Unravelling the Mystery of High Young Adult Mortality, „PLOS ONE” 8, 2013.
17.Nathan Keyfitz, Hal Caswell, Applied Mathematical Demography, vol. 47, New York 2005.
18.Pascal Blaise, Myśli, Warszawa 2002.
19.Robert W. Fogel, The New Economic History. I. Its Findings and Methods, „Economic History Review” 19 1966, issue 3.
20.Samuel H. Preston, Demography. Measuring and Modeling Population Processes, Oxford 2001.
21.Szymon Słomczyński, There Are Sick People Everywhere-in Cities, Towns and Villages. The Course of the Spanish Flu Epidemic in Poland, „Roczniki Dziejów Społecznych i Gospodarczych” 72, 2012.
22.Wilhelm Winkler, Die Totenverluste der öst.-ung. Monarchie nach Nationalitäten, Wien 1919.